2024 Beer and Beverage Trends

An egg yolk sunset looms large in the sky. Bearded brewers hike up their snifter bandoliers, kick Clydesdales with hop spurs and ride into an uncertain future. In 2023, the wild west days of craft beer are looking settled, and the seemingly endless carousel of mega-trends are giving way to a rooted, mature market. The game has changed, but excitement always lies just beyond the horizon. Join us as we look over our shoulders at the past year’s booms and busts, and sight down the barrel of what 2024 has to offer the world of beer.

Our numbers come primarily from Circana’s Total U.S. Multi-Outlet + Convenience Beer Data, which offers a comprehensive cross-section of sales by category, style, brand and more. This data, combined with consumer insights and the latest craft scuttlebutt, will inform our speculation for what’s on tap next year.

2023 Overview by Beer Segment

Total sales saw a mild bounce back from 2022, a 2.7 percent increase, for a total of $39.1 billion, largely on the coattails of Imports and Flavored Malt Beverages. Both segments saw double-digit growth. Imports, up 11.5 percent, are now second only to Domestic Premium in sales, and on track to overtake it as the top seller by 2024. FMB’s are up 17 percent, with sales up more than a half-billion dollars from last year.

Three other segments saw an uptick this year. Domestic Sub-Premium sales increased by 2.4 percent, for a total of $4.5 billion, firmly ahead of craft as the third-highest seller by category. Cider, though the third-lowest seller by category at $410 million, had a positive year at 1.8 percent growth. And finally, the promising Non-Alcoholic segment had a banner year, with sales up 29.4 percent for $306 million in sales.

Not all segments fared so well. Domestic Premium, though still on top with just over $10 billion in sales, saw a slight sales dip, which could be attributed to AB InBev’s poor marketing decisions. Craft dipped by just under one percentile – not too bad, all things considered. In terms of beer segments, it was “Beer Seltzer Centric” that saw the biggest fall in 2023, down nearly 15 percent for a loss of over half a billion compared to last year.

Beer Sales By Vendor

AB InBev is still on top in terms of beer conglomerates. With $12.6 billion in sales, it accounts for one-third of all sales among Beer’s Top 100 vendors. However, 2023 was a painful year for them due to the furor surrounding them sending Bud Light samples to trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney. Sales fell by 7.8 percent, totaling over $1 billion in losses compared to 2022. Unsurprisingly, nearly every SKU with “Bud Light” branding fell by double digits.

Molson Coors and Constellation Brands take the second and third spots respectively, standing neck and neck, each accounting for just under $7.2 billion in sales with double-digit growth compared to 2022.

Top 100 Beer Brands

Standing astride the list of top beer brands are “The Big 6”, which combine for more than 30 percent of dollar sales. Modelo Especial has earned its throne, selling more in 2023 ($3.4 billion) than any other brand, logging a 15 percent sales increase compared to 2022.

Michelob Ultra also gained significant ground on Bud Light. A gold standard for flavorful, high-quality light lager, and easily sessionable with a nice chewy mouthfeel, this brand sits in the eye of the storm for overall drinking preferences. It’s low-calorie, low-ABV, equally refreshing and ubiquitous, and about as dialed-in as a beer can be. It may not be the world’s most exciting beer, but for brewers, it’s worthy of study, and an excellent base beer for more creative flavor additions. Michelob Ultra Pure Gold and Lime Cactus brands are also top sellers.

Bud Light would have been the year’s top seller, were it not for a little PR fiasco, resulting in a disastrous drop in sales.

The Bud Light Debacle

Perhaps no beer had a more disappointing year than Bud Light. After a PR nightmare involving trans influencer Dylan Mulvaney, which alienated its core demographic, leading to boycotts and an enraged Kid Rock, sales are down 18 percent from last year, translating to nearly $726 million in losses. Adding to the sting, Bud Light’s flop saw it usurped by Modelo Especial as beer’s top brand, while Miller Lite and Coors Light both gained significant market share. Barring a huge, unlikely turnaround, both brands will surpass Bud Light in sales in 2024.

The boycott carried over into other AB mainstays, like Budweiser. Down more than 6 percent from last year for a loss of $94 million and selling less than Corona and Modelo in grocery stores, The King of Beers’ crown is weighing heavy upon its fizzy head.

As mentioned, both Coors Light and Miller Lite passed Bud Light in grocery stores, ranking third and fourth in sales respectively. It appears these brands, along with Modelo, siphoned up consumer dollars that would have otherwise gone to Bud Light. Whether or not BL can salvage its reputation with its main demographic remains to be seen, but the cogs are turning. In October, the brand announced that it would become the official beer of the UFC and followed in November by partnering with Zach Bryan for a 2024 concert series and Super Bowl Performance. Time will tell whether selective amnesia spares Bud Light, or if it will continue to decline in sales, ultimately to be passed by Modelo.

Corona saw a 5 percent sales jump to $2.1 billion, and Miller Lite holds the line between the Big 6 and the rest of the top 100, sitting $20 million lower than Corona in sales, but poised for a chance to overtake it in 2024 if its 15 percent growth holds.

But what about the other top 94? Budweiser and Busch Light are the only other billion-dollar brands in the top 100, followed by Natural Light and Heineken, the only two which brought in more than $500 million. All saw growth compared to 2022, save for Budweiser, thanks to collateral PR damage.

Just outside the top ten stands Twisted Tea Original, which had a banner year – nearly 17 percent growth for $464 million in sales, putting it well ahead of contenders Busch and Miller High Life. White Claw Hard Seltzer Variety Packs leveled off at less than 1 percent growth over last year, and it is quite possible their time in the sun has passed. Keep an eye out for declining sales in early 2024 and prepare for what might take its place.

Among $200-$300 million brands, Coors, Yuengling Traditional Lager, Pacifico, Corona Familiar and Pabst Blue Ribbon all saw double-digit growth. Some growth may be attributed to Bud Light fallout, but these sales increases point to a more fundamental shift in favor of affordable mainstays and Mexican beers, due in no small part to a corresponding demographic shift in the U.S.

Case in point, Modelo Chelada brands are absolutely killing it. We have Modelo Chelada Especial, Limon Y Sal, Mango Y Chile and Pina Picante all within the top 100, and all seeing between 17 and 40 percent growth. If combined, these four flavors would rank 12th in total sales for 2023. And while Modelo’s star is rising across the board, even Bud Light Chelada had a good year, all things considered, with its sales of $129 million down just 2 percent compared to last year. In Chelada we trust.

2024 is the perfect time to draw on the vast, rich history and culture of Mexico, Central and South America for creative inspiration, or simply to cater to an underserved market. Once again, it’s worth remembering that nearly 20 percent of the U.S. population is Hispanic (64 million people), not counting a very broad estimate of 8 million undocumented immigrants, many of whom enjoy a hard-earned brew after a day’s labor.

IPAs

Clearly, in terms of sales, IPAs are in hog heaven. They rose another 4 percent from last year, comprising nearly half of all craft sales in 2023, and accounting for around $1.9 billion out of $3.9 billion total. IPA enjoys near-universal appeal and a vast array of stylistic options for brewers. However, word from the consumer is that its honeymoon phase is winding down. Though the American palate is wedded to IPA, many are growing tired of seeing this horse beaten to a hazy, juicy pulp.

Many drinkers surveyed expressed the desire for a return to West Coast styles over hazy ones, while others bemoaned the degree to which IPA variety packs have pushed all others out of the market. In particular, the “Gummy IPA” trend seems to have brought some drinkers to the brink, as the core qualities that brought IPA to prominence are lost in the quest to prove oneself the juiciest.

If brewers are unwilling to risk shelf space on something other than an IPA, they might try sprucing up their offerings with a West Coast IPA, Black IPA, adjunct IPA (ala Alaskan Spruce IPA) or a “wintry” offering like New Belgium’s Accumulation.

IPA is the Marvel of Beers

There is a theme in Hollywood of rehashing previously successful franchises over and over, rather than taking any risk. Marvel has released 33 movies since 2007, and in 2022 its films accounted for roughly 30 percent of all box office sales. This is great for the studio, and great for the Marvel-obsessed, but not so great for the consumer, or the small-scale studio hoping to fund its risky but creative indie film.

IPA is Marvel, Captain America, or whatever else you want to call it. It’s so successful that it’s now driving all other styles off of shelves and out of mind, resulting in lower sales. Total Craft sales saw a marginal .9 percent drop compared to 2022. What’s hard to believe is that beyond IPA, there were only two craft styles which did not see sales decrease: Golden Ale and Variety packs. Variety packs, of course, are now almost entirely IPA-focused, leaving just Golden Ale and its 5 percent sales increase alone as Craft’s other point of light. Why Golden Ales? It’s hard not to speculate that they are serving as an IPA palate cleanser, the ginger and wasabi to IPA’s California Roll. While we don’t have data for each individual craft golden, AB’s Kona Big Wave Golden Ale was a top 100 brand, with sales spiking upward by 40 percent, accounting for nearly one-third of this style’s total sales.

That leaves every other style on the list running at a deficit. Belgian Wits are down 8 percent, Pale Ales down 6 percent. Fruit/Veggie/Spiced Beers are down double digits, as are Porters, Stouts, Ambers and Browns. Clearly there’s a dark beer flavor fatigue, which points to strong hopes for dryer, less sweet styles like session stouts, but there’s more to the story. Wheat Beer, Pale Lager, Amber Lager, Pilsner, Craft Light Beer… all down in sales. What could be looming outside the Craft Beer solar system with a gravitational pull strong enough to affect these numbers so universally?

Imports

Exhibit A. Imports are on track to surpass Domestic Premium as beer’s top-selling segment, rising nearly 12 percent in the past year to total $9.3 billion in sales, more than double the next highest segment, Domestic Sub Premium, which also saw sales increase from last year (+2.4%).

It’s no secret that Imports are a Cinderella story. Modelo is Cinderella in this case, but support from Corona, Heineken, Dos Equis, Pacifico, Stella Artois and Guinness all provide ironclad support for this segment, with nearly all seeing sales increases, or at worst, nominal decreases for ancillary brands.

Premium quality strikes a balance with affordability, and overseas novelty meets ubiquitous familiarity – imports thread the needle through domestic and craft beer’s weakest points. Unlike many fad brands of the past decade, which experienced meteoric jumps and precipitous declines in a matter of years, imported beer has been consistently growing each year, and shows no sign of slowing. Craft can stop the bleeding by distilling what’s best about Imported styles and offering its own local take. Mexican lager is a no-brainer for any brewery, but a Guinness-type stout, light but robust, would be a strong addition to most portfolios, as would a Euro-pils. These are easy drinkers that lend themselves to multi-beer sessions, whereas the beers du jour of many breweries focus on the opposite – double-digit-ABV booze bombs. Give us less ingredients and more affordable, balanced beer.

Flavored Malt Beverages

FMBs had a good run in ‘23, jumping by nearly $400 million and 20 percent in the last year. What brands drove this growth? In a word: Cheladas. Strong performances from Twisted Tea and Mike’s Hard brands helped also.

Craft cocktails have found a home in the last few taps of a brewpub, but the brands above carry a stigma to the average craft drinker. They are either too foreign or too trashy. These are small hurdles, which could open up huge potential sales for craft brewers. First, let’s tackle chelada, a matter of education.

Chelada is simply a Mexican beer with lime and salt. It is sometimes confused with clamato, a chelada variant made from tomato juice and sugar then spiced with clam broth. Brewers who spell out the ingredients (Refreshing Mexican lager infused with lime and salt) and Americanize the name (Chill-ada?) may be able to build a bridge between two worlds.

As for the “trashy” FMB’s, it wouldn’t take much to class things up. Mike’s Hard Lemonade becomes a shandy. Add a premium exotic ingredient and watch your Saffron Ginger Shandy sell like salt in the Sahara. FMBs were the second-fastest growing segment in 2023 behind NA beers, approaching $4 billion in sales. If brewers can find craft beer analogues to these FMB styles, Zion awaits.

Hard Seltzers

The tale of Hard Seltzers is one as old as time. An arms race for brand supremacy, then a blinding flash followed by a mushroom cloud, raining radioactive SKUs down through retail channels.

In 2023, most establishments had seltzers on tap. And seltzers deserved a few taps. But the writing’s on the wall. Sales dropped 15 percent compared to last year, for a loss of over half a billion dollars. The novelty is wearing off, and while Seltzer will retain its loyalists, segment leader Truly Seltzer saw sales drop by over $250 million. Topo Chico and Vizzy, owned by Molson Coors, are both down double digits, and needless to say, Bud Light Seltzer is down even more, around 40 percent less sales than 2022. The brightest sales spots in this realm came from the introduction of new flavors like Black Cherry, Watermelon or even Surge.

Novelty is the name of the game for seltzers, and thankfully, they lend themselves to experimentation. Standards like Lemon and Lime are seen as too plain, whereas Limoncello and Key Lime are two simple ways to make what is old seem new and exotic once more. If you are unsure what to choose for your limited seltzer offerings, consider Peach.

This flavor had a strong year across the board, as a coveted hop aroma and flavor, but also in FMB and Seltzer forms. Busch Light Peach was among AB InBev’s top sellers, though it only debuted this year. Simply Spiked Peach cracked the top 100 brands in its first year, and Twisted Tea Peach saw sales increase by more than 30 percent.

Non-Alcoholic Beers

What’s more surprising: That we may be on the brink of the US government admitting aliens are real, or that beer drinkers now think Non-Alcoholic beer is cool? We’ve seen it coming for the last couple years, but 2023 was great for NA beer. Sales jumped a cool $69 million, a 30 percent increase which made NA beer a $300 million dollar segment of the beer market.

Athletic Brewing deserves credit for this stunning makeover, but big beer is running with it. Heineken 0.0 cracked the top 100 brands and topped the segment, bringing in nearly $70 million in sales for the year after a huge marketing push that saw numerous major advertisements run on network television. Budweiser Zero bucked the Mulvaney blues to bring in almost $50 million, making it a top 20 AB InBev seller. Coors NA also saw growth nearing 30 percent, while Busch NA grew by nearly 10 percent.

O’Douls, on the other hand, saw significant declines. NA Beer is becoming premiumized, and with all due respect to this legacy brand, there’s just not a world where a product named “O’Douls” can be sexy. O’Douls is to premium what Denis Leary is to A-List, and while it may not be glamorous, there’s nothing wrong with making a career off-Broadway.

Back in the limelight, Athletic Brewing’s 2023 sales info has yet to drop, but in 2022, it was firmly seated behind Heineken 0.0 as the segment’s second-highest seller, having surpassed Bud Zero with dollar shares growing by 93 percent over the previous year.

The future is looking bright, and there are plenty of signs that show NA beer has legs for the foreseeable future. A 2023 survey revealed that one-third of Americans hope to drink less, and as an analog, nearly 18 percent of U.S. coffee drinkers opted for decaf exclusively in 2022, per Statista. Not to mention, we have two month-long unofficial holidays devoted to not drinking alcohol in Dry January and Sober October.

NA beers are a way to enjoy a night out while avoiding the risk of less than sober driving. They can help drinkers pace themselves during marathon sessions, or to join in on a night out without feeling like an outsider. The barrier to entry into this category for brewers will continue to decrease as dealcoholization technology improves and increased scale drives costs down.

Long story short, the NA stigma (that it is only for alcoholics or pregnant women) is gone, the market is growing rapidly, and there is an increasing amount of people who want to drink beer without suffering its effects on the body. For these reasons and more, Athletic Brewing is poised to rise to NA supremacy by 2025 at the latest.

What Are Drinkers Looking For in 2024?

A survey of more than 100 craft drinkers provided a glimpse into the state of beer preferences. Chief among them was the desire for easy drinking styles, specifically table beer, a style expected to clock in around .5 – 3.5% ABV. Clearly, people are experiencing hop and booze fatigue, but the call for table beer also points to an evolution in how people want to drink. As the average American drinker and their palate matures, rate of beer consumption can be expected to level off, as well as beer potency. Whales give way to Narwhals, Narwhals to Sculpins, Sculpins to Bass, and Bass to Landshark. In a nutshell, beer drinkers would be glad to have a beer that isn’t trying too hard but is comfortable in its own skin.

Perhaps that’s why so many voiced their support for national and regional mainstays like PBR, Rainier, Narragansett and Yuengling Lager. Or maybe it was the price fatigue so many are feeling. Frustration with $20 six-packs and $10 pints is coming to a head. Few beers can justify that price point when compared to a perfectly good light lager.

Classic styles that have been lurking in the shadows of IPA may see a return. The desire for quality Trappist styles, along with ESB, were on the consumer’s wish list — beers that don’t try too hard and are comfortable in their own skin. You could even chalk it up to nostalgia, as many others simply expressed a desire to drink from a bottle again, rather than a can. Perhaps a savvy tinkerer could make a tidy profit on a reusable glass bottle top adapter for cans.

Stratification

There was a time when all but the most local brewery had a chance at finding shelf space. A stroll through aisle 8 of your local supermarket will quickly tell you that those days are over. High-volume retail shelving has been locked down by big beer, the craft entities they own or partially own, and the few regional brewers that have managed to secure a border around their little nation states. The “little man” brewer was driven out and relegated to boutiques and on-premises sales.

The “middle class” of breweries is eroding and, with it, middle-class pricing. Things are typically super premium or swill, and consumers have noted the absence of affordable, quaffable brews. Hence, the call for lighter and cheaper, yet reliably tasty, craft brews.

Anchor Sails into the Sun

Anchor Brewing was legendary, pioneering the California Common style with Anchor Steam Beer and paving the way for the world of craft beer as we know it. And now, it is closed, thanks to poor management and declining sales. The decline of major craft brands is not new, but seeing Anchor fade into oblivion feels like watching the Statue of Liberty crumble. What does this tell us?

For one, the average craft drinker doesn’t care about history, or “craft” at all. A sobering realization, but there are people of legal drinking age who were born after 9/11. Bill Clinton is ancient history. Fritz Maytag may as well have been repurposing his brewing equipment during the Stone Age.

It also seems that Anchor suffered from a management disconnect, abandoning what worked for it, which was local support and traditional equipment, instead pushing for newer and bigger, with an ill-advised rebrand to boot. While Anchor’s expansion was not egregious in and of itself, it lost touch with its roots, and eventually was left overextended. Overextension has happened to far too many good brewers, which is perhaps why a brewer like Bell’s would choose to scale back its Best Brown Ale, which used to see nationwide retail distribution, even in Walmart. There is still small hope that former employees can buy the business back and mount a Napoleonic return from Elba… but don’t count on it.

Things are moving faster than ever, and beloved traditions are dropping like flies, which means that nostalgia may be a lucrative niche, if it can be bottled.

Light Beer is the Right Beer

In a year where there’s no singular Seabiscuit of beer style, what might bring people in the brewery door and keep them coming back? One promising avenue is to get creative with light styles. And light could be anywhere from 0 to 4 percent ABV.

Light beer has yet to see the same Precambrian explosion of experimentation that similarly popular styles have seen. Rather than reinventing the wheel, review the past decade of IPA and sour trends. Super fruity, hazy light beer? Strawberry lactose light ale, a la La Croix? How about a buttery 1.7% table beer that’s gone all in on Maillaird to complement your cornbread? There are a lot of new opportunities on the horizon that may unlock yet unexplored flavor dimensions.

Tech and Collaboration

Speaking of opportunity, though it may be anathema to many a brewer, the use of AI could assist in creation and execution of new products and marketing strategies plus packaging and artwork. Job creation may suffer, but in an era where every dollar counts, there’s something to be said for huge time and labor savings. 2023 saw the creation of entire “AI agencies,” which simulated each position in a marketing company to iterate and ultimately release a tangible product.

Companies are already using AI algorithms and machine learning to adapt and refine beer recipes. Back in 2016, IntelligentX brewed four different beers – Black AI, Golden AI, Pale AI, and Amber AI. Drinkers could scan a QR code on each bottle to give feedback about their beer. 80 percent of customers followed the link and answered its 10 questions, which resulted in more than 100,000 data points being processed by AI and used to refine the beer, if the brewmaster chose. The human element is still involved… for now. If scaled, IntelligentX believes it may one day be able to offer custom-generated beers based on a user’s preferences.

In 2018, Virginia’s Champion Brewing partnered with machine learning company Metis Machine to produce “the perfect IPA.” Data for the country’s top 10 best- and worst-selling IPAs was plugged into an algorithm to design a Terminator IPA, named ML IPA (short for machine learning.) The result garnered a 3.7 aggregate rating on Untappd… In 2023, Aussie-based Modus Brewing tried something similar, resulting in Neural Network AI East Coast IPA, currently rated 3.9 on Untappd. Perfection is always another data point away.

This is just the tip of the iceberg. Beer and tech combinations have a lot of untapped potential for brewers. A promising tech startup may be sitting on a piece of technology that could improve quality or drive sales for brewers who partner up thoughtfully.

Under the Influence

Celebrity and influencer endorsements are perhaps more potent than ever. Since 2020, McDonald’s has been forcing the world to accept Frankenstein schemes such as “The J. Balvin Meal” and the “Cactus Plant Flea Market Box.” Culinary icon Mr. Beast has burgers and chocolate for sale. In short, nothing is off-limits in terms of brand collaboration, and such a collaboration is easily adapted and scaled based on the target demographic. It can be hyper local – a microbrewery partnering with a notable figure in the community – or regional, like an MLS team with a branded beer, or worldwide.

Renowned fighting Irishman Conor McGregor is scaling his sessionable Forged Irish Stout in preparation for national U.S. distribution, and in another blow to any sense of societal normalcy, a Polish brewer is partnering with streamer and top OnlyFans model Amouranth to brew a beer from her “female essence.” The description is tantalizing.

“Reach out for a bottle filled with a golden beverage replete with female essence, give yourself up to your instincts and enjoy the intimacy of an extraordinary model. You deserve to stimulate your mind and enhance your taste sensations.”

Sounds good so far…

“…The use of champagne yeast, wheat malts and exclusive additives in the form of orange peel, coriander and aframomum. The composition is enhanced with the use of lactic acid from vaginal bacteria to bring pleasure to every sip.”

What about the mouthfeel?

Further investigation reveals that “vaginal beer” is the brewery’s entire business model, and this is its fourth variety. The glass half-full takeaway is that there are very few limits to the potential of collaborations, and that we are living in an era of hyper-specialization and global reach. It would not be unreasonable for a brewery to double down on one relatively niche style and corner the market, using online sales to maximize its customer base.

It certainly worked for Athletic Brewing, the poster child for niche beer styles. Granted, shipping NA beer eliminates much of the red tape around alcohol sales, but there are plenty of niches waiting to be fully tapped. And a niche is not mere stylistic limitation. Your niche could be technological, procedural or cultural. So long as a message is broadly communicated, it will find its intended audience.

In Summary

2023 saw the oldest of the old guard fall in Anchor Brewing. Chelada continued to build its silent empire. Drinkers were left a bit fatigued from hops and booze and are trying to slim down. The market matured, and “the next big thing” didn’t quite appear, though some would argue it’s Non-Alcoholic beer.

Perhaps the days of “the next big thing” are over, and it’s now more about finding the juiciest niche to fully exploit. If brewers can’t afford free experimentation, the next best thing is combining or repackaging proven formulas in new ways, to new audiences.

For example, we have canned cocktails, we have canned beer, but canned beer cocktails have not been fully exploited. Snakebites and Irish Car Bombs are household names, but how about the Boilermaker? A glass of beer and shot of whiskey, originating around 1890 from Butte, Montana for miners who needed a pick-me-up. There’s history, color and, presumably, flavor here waiting to be properly packaged into a niche.

That’s one example, but there are plenty more sweet spots to be found. And here, though it leaves a bit of a sour taste in the mouth, AI can be of help, leveraging data to save resources.

Or maybe the sweet spot has nothing to do with technology, and everything to do with human connection. Maybe what brings people back to your brewery is its communal, pub-like atmosphere, where one can walk in and strike up a conversation with anyone.

After all, nostalgia is at a premium these days, and what’s more reminiscent of the good old days than a night around the fire with nothing but a classic bottle of beer and cheerful conversation with friends?